What NOAA is saying about this summer
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its spring outlook, and the news isn't great for North Texas homeowners: above-normal temperatures and persistent drought conditions are expected across the DFW region through the summer of 2025. As of late April, much of North Texas is already sitting under D0 to D1 drought conditions — Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought — with no widespread relief in sight heading into the hottest months of the year.
WFAA meteorologists are projecting anywhere from 22 to 39 triple-digit temperature days this summer, compared to DFW's historical average of 20. That's a significant spread, but even the conservative forecast puts this summer above normal. And for homeowners sitting on North Texas clay soil, above-normal heat and below-normal rainfall is one of the most damaging combinations your foundation can face.
NOAA Spring 2025 Outlook: "Above-normal temperatures and persistent drought conditions expected across North and Central Texas. Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought (D0-D1) conditions have been maintained across much of the region, with few clear signs of widespread drought removal through the heart of spring."
Why DFW summers are uniquely dangerous for foundations
To understand why a hot, dry summer is so damaging to foundations in North Texas, you need to understand what's underneath your home. Most of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex sits on what geologists call the Blackland Prairie — a region of highly reactive montmorillonite clay, also known locally as "black gumbo" or "Houston Black Clay."
This isn't ordinary dirt. The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service identifies North Texas as one of the regions with the highest concentration of shrink-swell clay soils in the entire United States. In fact, over 50% of the soil in the DFW Metroplex is expansive clay, with Tarrant and Dallas counties sitting on some of the most reactive deposits in the country.
According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, expansive soils cause more financial damage to structures in the United States each year than floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes combined. Texas — and North Texas in particular — is ground zero for this problem.
The shrink-swell cycle: what actually breaks your foundation
Here's the mechanism that damages foundations in DFW. When North Texas clay absorbs water, it swells — sometimes expanding up to 30 to 40 percent in volume. That expansion pushes upward against your slab with enormous force. When the soil dries out — as it does every summer — it contracts and pulls away from your foundation, removing support and creating voids beneath the slab.
This back-and-forth is called the shrink-swell cycle. Your foundation is designed to be rigid and stable. It isn't designed to act as a trampoline, absorbing the movement of thousands of square feet of shifting clay every season. Over years and decades, that repeated stress causes differential settlement — where different sections of your foundation sink or shift at different rates — which is the primary cause of cracks, sticking doors, and structural damage in DFW homes.
The most dangerous scenario: A long dry summer that severely shrinks the soil, followed by heavy autumn rains. That sudden re-saturation after prolonged drought is one of the most damaging events a foundation can experience — the rapid swelling is uneven and violent. With this summer's drought forecast, DFW homeowners should be especially vigilant heading into fall.
What to watch for this summer — 7 warning signs
As the soil dries out and shrinks over the coming months, you may start to notice signs of foundation movement in your home. These symptoms often appear or worsen during drought conditions. Check your home for the following:
- 1New or widening cracks in drywall — Diagonal cracks running from the corners of door or window frames are a classic sign. Stair-step cracks in exterior brick mortar are equally telling. Any crack that was small in spring and has visibly grown by July needs attention.
- 2Doors and windows that suddenly stick — If doors that closed fine in spring start dragging or sticking by midsummer, the frame is likely moving. This is especially common on interior doors in the center of the home.
- 3Gaps opening between walls and ceiling — As one section of foundation drops, it pulls the wall down with it, opening a visible gap where the wall meets the ceiling. Check every room.
- 4Soil pulling away from the foundation perimeter — Walk around your home and look at the base. If you can see a visible gap between the soil and your foundation wall, your clay is already contracting. This is a direct visual confirmation of shrinkage.
- 5Floors that feel uneven or soft in spots — Place a marble or a ball on your floor. If it rolls noticeably, you have differential settlement. A slope of more than 1 inch over 10 feet is considered significant.
- 6Cracks in garage floor or driveways — These concrete surfaces sit directly on the same clay soil as your foundation. New cracks or heaving in your driveway this summer can be an early indicator of broader soil movement under your home.
- 7Water not draining away from the house — Poor drainage accelerates foundation damage. If your yard slopes toward your home or water pools near the foundation after rain, the clay is being unevenly saturated, which causes uneven swelling when rains return in fall.